(12 or 24 point)
A./Prof. David Dowe
Rating and ranking players and teams using MML
Ratings are used in chess, tennis, golf, other sports, etc. in order
to rank both teams and individual players. A variety of systems are
used to do the ratings and rankings - including Elo, Glicko and
systems more concerned with prize money (over the past 12 months).
We can re-visit and improve these systems using the Minimum Message
Length (MML) principle (Wallace and Boulton, 1968)(Wallace and Freeman,
1987)(Wallace and Dowe, 1999a, which is the Computer Journal's most
downloaded article)(Wallace, posthumous, 2005)(Comley and Dowe, 2005)
to arrive at a comparatively simple model with an improved and
near-optimal predictive accuracy on future games and contests.
This project will require strong mathematics - calculus (partial
derivatives, second-order partial derivatives, integration by parts,
determinants of matrices, etc.), etc.
References:
CoDo2005 Comley, Joshua W. and D.L. Dowe (2005). Minimum Message
Length, MDL and Generalised Bayesian Networks with Asymmetric
Languages, Chapter 11 (pp265-294) in P. Gru:nwald, I. J. Myung and
M. A. Pitt (eds.), Advances in Minimum Description Length: Theory
and Applications, M.I.T. Press, April 2005, ISBN 0-262-07262-9
[Final camera-ready copy submitted Oct. 2003.]
Wall2005 Wallace, C.S. (2005) [posthumous], Statistical and Inductive
Inference by Minimum Message Length, Springer, 2005, 432 pp.,
ISBN: 0-387-23795-X.
WaBo1968 Wallace C.S. & Boulton, D.M., An Information Measure for
Classification, Computer Journal, Vol.11, No.2, 1968, pp 185-194
WaDo1999a Wallace, C.S. and D.L. Dowe (1999a). Minimum Message Length
and Kolmogorov Complexity, Computer Journal, Vol. 42, No. 4,
pp270-283. [This is the Computer Journal's most downloaded article.]
WaFr1987 Wallace C.S., Freeman.P.R., Estimation and Inference by
Compact Coding, The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series B, Methodology, 49, 3, 1987, pp 240-265
(24 point)
A./Prof. David Dowe
Econometric, statistical and financial time series modelling using MML
Time series are sequences of values of one or more variables. They
are much studied in finance, econometrics, statistics and various
branches of science (e.g., meteorology, etc.).
Minimum Message Length (MML) inference (Wallace and Boulton, 1968)
(Wallace and Freeman, 1987)(Wallace and Dowe, 1999a)(Wallace,
posthumous, 2005)(Comley and Dowe, 2005) has previously been applied
to autoregressive (AR) time series (Fitzgibbon et al., 2004), other
time series (Schmidt et al., 2005) and (at least in preliminary manner)
both AR and Moving Average (MA) time series (Sak et al., 2005).
In this project, we apply MML to the Autoregressive Conditional
Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, in which the (standard deviations
and) variances also vary with time. Depending upon progress, we can
move on to the GARCH (Generalised ARCH) model or Peiris's Generalised
Autoregressive (GAR) models, or to inference of systems of
differential equations.
This project will require strong mathematics - calculus (partial
derivatives, second-order partial derivatives, integration by parts,
determinants of matrices, etc.), etc.
References:
CoDo2005 Comley, Joshua W. and D.L. Dowe (2005). Minimum Message
Length, MDL and Generalised Bayesian Networks with Asymmetric
Languages, Chapter 11 (pp265-294) in P. Gru:nwald, I. J. Myung and
M. A. Pitt (eds.), Advances in Minimum Description Length: Theory
and Applications, M.I.T. Press, April 2005, ISBN 0-262-07262-9
[Final camera-ready copy submitted Oct. 2003.]
FiDV2004 Fitzgibbon, L.J., D. L. Dowe and F. Vahid (2004). Minimum
Message Length Autoregressive Model Order Selection. In M.
Palanaswami et al. (eds.), International Conference on Intelligent
Sensing and Information Processing (ICISIP), Chennai, India, 4-7
January 2004 (ISBN: 0-7803-8243-9, IEEE Catalogue Number: 04EX783),
pp439-444
SaDR2005 M Sak, D Dowe, and S Ray: Minimum Message Length Moving
Average Time Series Data Mining, Proceedings of the First Int Conf.
Computational Intelligence: Methods and Applications, Istanbul,
Turkey, Dec. 15-17, 2005, 6 pages
ScPL2005 D F Schmidt, A P Paplinski and G S Lowe: Adaptive Control of
Hydraulic Systems with MML Inferred RBF Networks, Proc. 2005 IEEE
International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA 2005),
Barcelona, Spain, IEEE, Barcelona, Spain, ISBN: 0-7803-8915-8,
pp 2379-2385
Wall2005 Wallace, C.S. (2005) [posthumous], Statistical and Inductive
Inference by Minimum Message Length, Springer, 2005, 432 pp.,
ISBN: 0-387-23795-X.
WaBo1968 Wallace C.S. & Boulton, D.M., An Information Measure for
Classification, Computer Journal, Vol.11, No.2, 1968, pp 185-194
WaDo1999a Wallace, C.S. and D.L. Dowe (1999a). Minimum Message Length
and Kolmogorov Complexity, Computer Journal, Vol. 42, No. 4,
pp270-283. [This is the Computer Journal's most downloaded article.]
WaFr1987 Wallace C.S., Freeman.P.R., Estimation and Inference by
Compact Coding, The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series B, Methodology, 49, 3, 1987, pp 240-265
(24 point)
A./Prof. David Dowe
Using MML to infer language history, evolution and relation to DNA
The evolution of human languages raises several interesting issues, such
as how languages evolve, how the evolution of spoken language relates to
the evolution of written language, how it is that geographical regions
of related languages can surround one or more regions of languages not
related, how populations of language speakers migrated eons ago and how
spoken language relates to DNA. Study of this area also helps with the
inference of now-extinct ancestral languages and at least indirectly
with the preservation of dying languages. The project will use the
Minimum Message Length (MML) principle (Wallace and Boulton, 1968)
(Wallace and Freeman, 1987)(Wallace and Dowe, 1999a)(Wallace,
posthumous, 2005) (Comley and Dowe, 2005), building upon earlier work in
(Ooi and Dowe, 2005).
The project will require strong mathematics - calculus (partial
derivatives, second-order partial derivatives, integration by parts,
determinants of matrices, etc.), etc.
References:
CoDo2005 Comley, Joshua W. and D.L. Dowe (2005). Minimum Message
Length, MDL and Generalised Bayesian Networks with Asymmetric
Languages, Chapter 11 (pp265-294) in P. Gru:nwald, I. J. Myung and
M. A. Pitt (eds.), Advances in Minimum Description Length: Theory
and Applications, M.I.T. Press, April 2005, ISBN 0-262-07262-9
[Final camera-ready copy submitted Oct. 2003.]
OoDo2005 Ooi, J.N. and D. L. Dowe, Inferring Phylogenetic Graphs of
Natural Languages using Minimum Message Length, Proc. CAEPIA 2005
(11th Conf. of the Spanish Association for Artificial Intelligence),
Vol. 1, pp I:143 - I:152, Nov. 2005; ISBN 84-96474-13-5
Wall2005 Wallace, C.S. (2005) [posthumous], Statistical and Inductive
Inference by Minimum Message Length, Springer, 2005, 432 pp.,
ISBN: 0-387-23795-X.
WaBo1968 Wallace C.S. & Boulton, D.M., An Information Measure for
Classification, Computer Journal, Vol.11, No.2, 1968, pp 185-194
WaDo1999a Wallace, C.S. and D.L. Dowe (1999a). Minimum Message Length
and Kolmogorov Complexity, Computer Journal, Vol. 42, No. 4,
pp270-283. [This is the Computer Journal's most downloaded article.]
WaFr1987 Wallace C.S., Freeman.P.R., Estimation and Inference by
Compact Coding, The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series B, Methodology, 49, 3, 1987, pp 240-265
(24 point)
A./Prof. David Dowe
Recognising, communicating with & quantifying varieties of intelligence
``Intelligence'' is a term used variably to describe a variety of
human aptitudes (memory, mathematical ability, ability to make inductive
inferences), terrestrial non-human aptitudes and (www.SETI.org)
something sought in extra-terrestrials. Humans share much with other
humans and share at least a planet with terrestrial non-humans, but how
much - if anything - must humans share with extra-terrestrials or one
extra-terrestrial with another?
Dowe and Hajek (1997, 1998) discuss the relevance of the
information-theoretic Minimum Message Length (MML) principle (Wallace
and Boulton, 1968)(Wallace and Freeman, J. Royal Stat. Soc, 1987)
(Wallace and Dowe, 1999a)(Wallace, 2005) to the inductive inference part
of intelligence, and Hernandez-Orallo and Minaya-Collado (1998) discuss
the relevance of Kolmogorov complexity to intelligence - and MML is
intimately related to Kolmogorov complexity (Wallace and Dowe, 1999a)
(Wallace, 2005).
This project concerns the use of information theory, MML and
Kolmogorov complexity to recognise signs of intelligence (``There's
life, Jim, but not as we know it'') and ways of communicating with it.
This will inevitably entail measuring - or attempting to measure - the
intelligence. Another direction in which the project might head is to
study how intelligence of a system increases (or possibly doesn't
increase) when there is communication involving more than one
intelligent entity.
The project might also involve the study of communications between
terrestrial non-humans such as, e.g., marmosets and dolphins, etc.
The project will require strong mathematics.
References:
CoDo2005 Comley, Joshua W. and D.L. Dowe (2005). Minimum Message
Length, MDL and Generalised Bayesian Networks with Asymmetric
Languages, Chapter 11 (pp265-294) in P. Gru:nwald, I. J. Myung and
M. A. Pitt (eds.), Advances in Minimum Description Length: Theory
and Applications, M.I.T. Press, April 2005, ISBN 0-262-07262-9
[Final camera-ready copy submitted Oct. 2003.]
DoHa1997 D. L. Dowe, A. R. Hajek (1997), "A computational extension
to the Turing Test", Technical Report #97/322, Dept Computer Science,
Monash University, Melbourne, 9pp, 1997
DoHa1998 D L Dowe and A R Hajek (1998). A non-behavioural,
computational extension to the Turing Test, pp101-106, Proc.
International Conf. on Computational Intelligence & Multimedia
Applications (ICCIMA'98), Gippsland, Australia, February 1998
HOMC1998 Hernandez-Orallo, J. and Minaya-Collado, N.: A Formal
Definition of Intelligence Based on an Intensional Variant of
Kolmogorov Complexity (English, 18 pp.), Proc. International
Symposium of Engineering of Intelligent Systems (EIS'98) ICSC Press
1998, pp 146-163
Wall2005 Wallace, C.S. (2005) [posthumous], Statistical and Inductive
Inference by Minimum Message Length, Springer, 2005, 432 pp.,
ISBN: 0-387-23795-X.
WaBo1968 Wallace C.S. & Boulton, D.M., An Information Measure for
Classification, Computer Journal, Vol.11, No.2, 1968, pp 185-194
WaDo1999a Wallace, C.S. and D.L. Dowe (1999a). Minimum Message Length
and Kolmogorov Complexity, Computer Journal, Vol. 42, No. 4,
pp270-283. [This is the Computer Journal's most downloaded article.]
WaFr1987 Wallace C.S., Freeman.P.R., Estimation and Inference by
Compact Coding, The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series B, Methodology, 49, 3, 1987, pp 240-265