DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
MONASH UNIVERSITY
Clayton, Victoria 3168 Australia
TECHNICAL REPORT 96/297
Information-theoretic football tipping
D L Dowe, G E Farr, A J Hurst and K L Lentin
ABSTRACT
This paper described a football tipping competition based on the estimation of probabilities of victory (rather than simply an estimation of which team will win), and its connection with information theory and gambling. It also describes a football tipping competition for which entrants tip the mean and standard deviation they perceive on the margin of the game. The optimal long-term strategy in both competitions is the minimisation of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance from the "true" probability (distribution) to that tipped by the entrant.