Probabilistic prediction
In problems of prediction, as well as using "yes"/"no" predictions, we would
encourage people to consider also using probabilistic prediction, where the
score assigned to a probabilistic prediction is given according to the
(negative) logarithm of the stated probability of the event.
More on this is given in (e.g.)
D. L. Dowe, G. E. Farr, A. J. Hurst and K. L. Lentin (1996):
"Information-theoretic football tipping",
in N. de Mestre (ed.), 3rd Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport,
Bond University, Qld, Australia, 233-241, 1996 ; or
D. L. Dowe et al.,
Kullback-Leibler distance, probability and football prediction.
Scoring functions for probabilistic prediction
Scoring functions for
probabilistic prediction and
Gaussian prediction.
Australian football as an example of probabilistic prediction
Link to (new) Monash Computer Science Footy Tipping Page
(and how to join).
Link to K.L. Lentin's 1995 Footy Tipping Page, including (Probabilistic) Info Theory Tipping Results.
Link to A. J. Hurst's 1996 Footy Tipping Results, including Probabilistic and Gaussian Results.
3rd Year project on probabilistic sports prediction
Probabilistic
sports prediction using machine learning.
Current Australian football season data
Links to
Wil's (footy) Fixtures and Results
(1998,
1997),
Wil's Footy Page
and
Wil's Footy Links.
Past Australian football seasons' data
Link to William's Australian Football Page.
Links to Wil's 1995 Footy Page.
and
Wil's 1997 Footy Page.
Swinburne Sports Statistics.
Link to A. J. Hurst's directories of footy data since 1991 with
1991,
1992,
1993,
1994,
1995 and
1996.
If you would like to find out more about or
join
a
probabilistic prediction competition (for Australian football),
e-mail Torsten Seemann,
torsten@cs.monash.edu.au
(or David "Saverio" Powell,
powell@cs.monash.edu.au,
or David Dowe,
dld@cs.monash.edu.au).
Other links of possible interest
Minimum Message Length
(MML)
page.
Other football links of possible interest
Australian Informatics Olympiad
David Dowe's computer footy tips are in
Friday's The Australian,
starting Sat. 28th March 1998.
CSC423 Learning and Prediction (2nd semester, Comp. Sci. Hons. course)
If you are at or near Monash University and would like to know about the theory of probabilistic prediction or of MML,
you could attend my 1998 2nd semester
Comp. Sci.
Hons. course
CSC423 Learning and Prediction,
starting on the week of Mon 20th July '98.
This page was put together by
Dr. David Dowe,
Dept. of Computer Science, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3168, Australia
e-mail:
dld@cs.monash.edu.au (Fax: +61 3 9905-5146)
(and was started on Mon 24th Mar. 1997) and was last updated no earlier than Fri 20th Jan. 1998.
Copyright
David L. Dowe,
Monash University, Australia,
24 Mar 1997, 20 Jan 1998, 7 May 1998, etc.
Copying is not permitted without expressed permission from
David L. Dowe.